DNV GL’s “2019 Energy Transition Outlook” provides an independent forecast of developments in the world energy mix to 2050. By this time, gas will account for nearly 30% of the global energy supply, providing the world with a base of secure and affordable energy, and with manufacturing feedstock.
The report reveals there is no single pathway to a decarbonized energy mix. A combination of energy sources—primarily gas and renewables—will be the quickest route to delivering a supply of affordable, decarbonized energy in the lead-up to midcentury. Gas will increasingly complement variable renewables, meeting demand in peak periods such as winter in colder climates.
As gas secures its place as the world’s largest energy source from the middle of the next decade, its production and consumption must be decarbonized to help achieve national and international targets for climate change mitigation.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS)—the only currently available technology to deeply decarbonize hydrocarbon use—will not be employed at-scale until the 2040s unless governments develop and enact more definitive policies on its use, according to the “Energy Transition Outlook.”
“All major routes to successfully decarbonizing gas rely on the large-scale uptake of carbon capture and storage. The future of CCS largely lies in the hands of policy-makers setting a higher carbon price than the cost of the technology. Industry can also play a role in stimulating quicker adoption by focusing on finding ways to reduce the cost of CCS technology,” said Liv A. Hovem, chief executive officer of DNV GL Oil and Gas. “Large-scale uptake of carbon capture and storage technology will unlock significant opportunities for hydrocarbon and renewable energy technologies to work together to decarbonize the energy mix. The energy industry must, however, also shift its mindset from ‘gas vs renewables’ to ‘gas and renewables’ for success.”
Approaches to integrating hydrocarbon and renewable technology for decarbonized gas production and consumption include
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