TOPICS OF INTEREST
PETROLEUM ECONOMICS/PRODUCTION FORECASTING
US Fed Survey Shows Small Bounce in Energy Activity, Bigger Rebound Uncertain
The majority of energy firms surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank don’t expect the business environment to significantly improve until 2022 or 2023.
Machine-Learning Approach Determines Spatial Variation in Shale Decline Curves
The complete paper describes an automated machine-learning approach to determine the spatial variation in decline type curves for shale gas production, based on existing data of production, completion, and geological parameters.
Shell To Shed More Than 10% of Staff as Part of Net-Zero Restructuring Push
Shell's CEO said the Dutch supermajor has "too many layers" and that the move to downsize will help ensure its future. As a result, at least 9,000 people are expected to leave the oil and gas producer between now and 2022.
The New Map: Daniel Yergin Paints A Complex Mosaic Of Our Energy Future
The author of The Prize talked recently about his newest book on the energy transition and what he sees as the most dynamic forces shaping the things to come.
Oil Jumps After Saudi Oil Minister Presses OPEC+ for Better Compliance With Production Cuts
Saudi energy minister warns speculators not to bet against the OPEC+ alliance.
BP’s Energy Outlook Foresees Big Shift for Oil Demand
This year’s outlook contains scenarios that suggest peak demand has already arrived because of a global pandemic and an accelerating energy transition.
Enterprise Pipeline Project Cancellation Indicates a Lasting Slowdown Ahead
Enterprise Products Partners publicly acknowledged the deep slump in pipeline demand out of the Permian Basin by canceling a project at a time when most producers have been quietly postponing US projects.
ExxonMobil Weighs Global Job Cuts After Unveiling Australian Layoff Plan
Company cites COVID-19-driven decline in fuel demand in move following announcement of Australian layoff plan as latest cost-cutting measure.
Water, Water Everywhere: Using ML and Game Theory To Win at Produced-Water Forecasting
Advanced machine-learning methods combined with aspects of game theory are helping operators understand the drivers of water production and improve forecasting and economics in unconventional basins.
AI-Based Decline-Curve Analysis Manages Reservoir Performance
Decline-curve analysis is one of the more widely used forms of data analysis that evaluates well behavior and forecasts production and reserves. This paper presents technologies that apply DCA methods to wells in an unbiased, systematic, intelligent, and automated fashion.
New US Oil and Gas Lease Auctions To Begin 26 August
The US Bureau of Land Management’s August auction will be the first since March.
Giant Discovery Raises Norwegian Oil Project Hopes
Dugong could become a new North Sea production hub says offshore explorer Neptune Energy upon its latest discovery.
Shell, Chevron Combined Quarterly Losses Top $25 Billion
Shell and Chevron lead the pack in a slew of Q2 losses with $18.1 billion and $8.3 billion, respectively. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell, Petrobras, and Repsol also posted losses. The tally of these global majors’ losses in a single quarter tops $30 billion.
Unconventionals at a Crossroads: Where Do We Go From Here?
URTeC 2020’s opening plenary session panel shared insights into how the shale industry can scale technology, fiscal restraint, and social responsibility into a sustainable business case for a new energy landscape.
IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit: First Step Toward Bridging Gap Between Ambition and Action?
Technology innovation, job creation, inclusive and equitable recoveries, and sustainable electricity headline discussions at high-level summit.
Production Cuts Not Enough To Offset Plummeting Prices, Oversupply of Natural Gas
For an industry once fueled by the law of supply and demand, the new economic reality has brought new rules.
Shell Wipes Out Up To $22 Billion From Major Oil and Gas Projects
Two of the biggest assets to suffer from the new valuation are in Australia. Shell’s QGC venture and its floating liquified natural gas facility, Prelude, have been reduced in value by up to $9 billion.
As Renewables Grow, Oil Continues To Dominate Share of Energy Mix
World energy is at a “pivotal moment,” says BP CEO in annual statistical review, which reveals contrasts, challenges in energy consumption, production, and emissions.
Succeeding in the New Pressure Pumping Environment
New report offers guidelines for pressure pumpers of the future.
Pandemic Delivers Seismic Shock to Global Energy System: WEC
COVID-19 will fundamentally affect the world’s energy systems and the pace and direction of global transition. The WEC identified a three-stage, respond-rebuild-recreate model being adopted by energy companies in response to the pandemic.
BP Slashes Up to $17.5 Billion in Assets; Cites Pandemic for Swifter Shift to Net Zero
Write-offs include billions for early-exploration-stage projects that the company will now cut.
BP To Cut 14% of Workforce
The supermajor will cut 10,000 jobs by year end.
OPEC+ Continues Production Cuts, Leading to Mixed Market Reactions and Forecasts
Although oil prices were down on 8 June, the market is expected to see higher prices in response to the OPEC+ decision to continue production cuts.
Staking Energy and ESG Positions
What’s driving ESG investment?
New Low for Active US Crude Oil and Natural Gas Rigs
In 2 months, the US saw a 56% decline in rig count, reaching a 33-year low.
EIA: Global Liquid Fuel Inventory To Decline for 1.5 Years After Reaching 2020 Peak
The recent increase in global liquid fuel inventory has been largely driven by travel restrictions, and reduced economic activity. Supply is expected come back down as demand and prices recover.
Total Puts the Brakes on Oil Deal With Occidental
Houston-based Occidental had earmarked the money to ease debt from buying Anadarko.
Saudi Arabia Faces Challenge in Balancing Deep Oil Cuts With Need for Gas
Middle East could lose 15% of ethane-based ethylene supply in 2020 because of oil supply dynamics.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE Aramco Will Cut Close to Additional 1.2 Million B/D from June Oil Output
The latest cuts come less than 2 weeks after OPEC+ began the largest round of coordinated production curtailments ever agreed to.
Finding Oil Is Really Hard, Making Money Even Harder
Putting together the billions of dollars needed to develop deepwater finds has become tougher, but when the discoveries are huge, companies will make every effort to find a way to tap what may be a cheap source of oil.
Rapid Pivot to Gas Crucial for Future Energy Mix
There are numerous views of what the future energy landscape will look like in the next decade and beyond. When thinking about sources of primary energy, it is not a question of either/or, it is a question of what can reach scale fast enough to meet continued demand growth.
Offshore Enters Uncharted Waters
For the offshore sector, the collapse in oil demand and prices came just as the market was beginning to look up. Now many companies are focused on survival. This article discusses how various market segments, regions, and companies are faring in “the new reality.”
Permian Completions Activity Falling Fast, But Not Evenly
While many shale producers are racing to cut costs by removing crews from the field, ExxonMobil and Chevron stood out as maintaining large numbers of fracturing crews.
Negative US Oil Prices Could Return in May
The nuances of futures contracts caught many of the world’s traders off guard, sending major US crude benchmark into negative pricing territory for the first time. But it probably will not be the last time.
Production Lifting Costs Shrinking
The savings result in part from the depreciation of global currencies against the US dollar, as most operating expenses in oil and gas production are realized in local currencies. Brazil leads in savings.
Can Regulators Move Fast Enough To Fix a Shattered Market?
Texas Railroad commissioners recognize the battering Texas oil companies, and their workers, are taking, but will continue considering their options until 5 May.
IEA Head Declares “Black April” as Oil Oversupply Peaks at 29 Million B/D
A new report shows that the worst of the ongoing downturn may be soon over. A gradual recovery to global oil markets is expected to begin in the next few weeks.
How An Oil Price Crash Can Be a Good Thing
Not everybody suffers when US oil producers slash production. Among the beneficiaries could be US gas producers who will benefit because less oil production will mean a lot less gas on the US market.
OPEC+ Moves To End Price War With 9.7 Million B/D Cut
Reductions will begin next month and last until June. After that, major oil producers around the world plan to step down from the cuts in phases that extend to 2022.
Further Cuts Announced Due to Low Oil Price, Supply/Demand Imbalance
ExxonMobil and Halliburton made additional cuts in spending and personnel.
Rapid Forecast Calibration Using Nonlinear Simulation Regression With Localization
The industry increasingly relies on forecasts from reservoir models for reservoir management and decision making. However, because forecasts from reservoir models carry large uncertainties, calibrating them as soon as data come in is crucial.
Upstream Digitalization Is Proving Itself in the Real World
For the upstream industry, where improvement in efficiency or production can drive significant financial results, there is no question that the size of the digital prize is huge. So are the challenges.
What Role Will LNG Play in Balancing Gas Demand in the MENA Region?
The complete paper analyzes the role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in balancing the natural gas demand in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region.
Whiting Files for Bankruptcy
The Denver-based shale producer is the first to cite the ongoing price war and COVID-19 pandemic as the triggers for its insolvency.
US to Consider Leasing Space in Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The potential leasing of space in the SPR comes after the DOE’s plans to buy crude oil were suspended. US oil inventory stockpiles stand at a 10-month high.
Multilevel Strategies Improve History Matching of Complex Reservoir Models
The complete paper explores the use of multilevel derivative-free optimization for history matching, with model properties described using principal component analysis (PCA) -based parameterization techniques.
Model Error Estimation Improves Forecasting
The results of the authors’ research showed promising benefits from the use of a systematic procedure of model diagnostics, model improvement, and model-error quantification during data assimilations.
History Matching and Forecasting
Most history-matching studies have fixed resources—that is, the team of engineers and geoscientists is predetermined. Moreover, the deadlines are always very strict. This constrained scenario often leads to an unfortunate result: The quality of the study suffers.
UPDATE: Oil Industry Budget Cuts Adding Up Across the Globe
The list of companies that are slashing millions and sometimes billions from their annual spending programs is growing longer as the ripple effects of a price war and pandemic spread across the globe.
Chevron Hits the Brakes on Permian, Cuts $8 Billion Across Company
The international major has lowered its output forecast in the world’s most prolific unconventional basin by 20%.
Industry Faces Long Road to Recovery
Leaders of Rystad Energy went online recently to talk about the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the oil and gas industry, and the prognosis isn’t good.
Is Depression-Era Production Regulation What OPEC Really Wants To See?
The notion that the state of Texas could help oil producers by limiting production at a time when the market is glutted has a real history in Texas, but an iffy future.
Historic Oil Glut May Linger for Years
Oil prices got bad fast, so when will they get better? Don’t bet on a quick recovery.
Facts and Figures: US To Fill Strategic Petroleum Reserves Amid Historic Price War
In its first response to the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war, the US government will purchase up to 78 million bbl of crude to protect domestic producers.
E&P Spending Cuts Spur Requests for Reduced OFS Fees
The shale industry could shoulder 65% of $100-billion 2020 global E&P spending cut. Can oilfield services providers afford to cut their fees further to prop up hard-hit operators?
Oil Price Crash Triggers Decisions To Slow Drilling
The prescribed treatment for market- and virus-induced oil price collapse is to quickly slow production growth. Two US shale companies moved swiftly to cut the pace of drilling and completions, but it is too soon to know if that will have any impact.
Record US Production Topped 12 Million B/D in 2019, Will Climb Slower This Year
Led by Texas and New Mexico, year-over-year crude output jumped by 11% according to the US Energy Information Administration. Going forward, new records will be set but at a slower pace.
Maintaining Seismic-Focused Exploration During Downturn Yields Benefits
This paper demonstrates how maintaining investment in high-quality 3D seismic during the last downturn, together with selective exploration, quality geoscience, application of new technologies, and efficiently maturing discoveries to early cash flow, was successful in sustaining future production.
Life After 5: How Tight-Oil Wells Grow Old
Production data from the oldest horizontal wells in the three largest oil plays in the US show that annual decline rates remain relatively high for a long period of time. This challenges assumptions held about production after 5 years and directly affects reserve and ultimate recovery estimates.
EIA: US Crude and Renewables Will Coexist For Decades To Come
While renewable energy sources are poised to see major growth, possibly displacing natural gas as the top source of electricity in the US, hydrocarbon production will remain above or near current historical highs until at least 2050.
ExxonMobil: Another Guyana Discovery, Ups Recoverable Reserves, Adding a Drillship
Guyana continues to strengthen its reputation as the world’s fastest growing offshore exploration hotspot.
2020 Will Be Year of New Directions and Complex Choices for Oil and Gas Industry
Amid weakening confidence and volatile market conditions, greater efficiencies and decarbonization are at the center of the industry’s agenda.
Eni, ADNOC Sign Carbon Capture Agreement
The companies will focus on research and development to reduce CO2 emissions and promote the circular economy.
Israel Starts Exporting Natural Gas to Egypt
Landmark deal called most significant since 1979 peace treaty.
US Shale: All Signs Point to Further Consolidation
As capital markets dry up and shale producers look for pathways to growth, oil and gas data analytics firm Enverus predicts the US sector will see a “surge” in mergers and acquisitions in 2020.
Study Assesses Incentives, Development Strategies for Peruvian Mature Heavy Oil
The complete paper explores technical and economic development options to produce heavy-oil resources at commercial rates and showcases three optimization scenarios of higher recovery efficiency aimed at increasing net present value at the basin level.
US Sets New Records for Proved Oil and Gas Reserves
Proved oil reserves totaled 43.8 billion bbl at yearend 2018 while proved gas reserves amounted to 504.5 Tcf, both topping records set in 2017, the US Energy Information Administration said.
Shale, Tight Oil Investments to Fall 12% in 2020; Global Deepwater Rising
Lower oil prices and capital discipline are expected to result in a double-digit drop in shale and tight oil spending, while deepwater momentum is seen continuing. This comes as “massive investments” will be needed in the next decade to meet growing oil demand.
Permian Basin Decline Rates Have “Increased Dramatically” Amid Ongoing Slowdown
A new report says that production growth in the world’s most prolific unconventional basin is on the verge of stalling out.
Enverus Forecasts “Significant Slowdown” in US Gas Output Growth in 2020
The data analytics firm projects US dry gas output growth will shrink to 2 Bcf/D next year from 8–9 Bcf/D in 2018 and 2019.
Tullow Oil CEO, Exploration Director Resign Amid Lower Production Outlook
The resignations come as the company makes downward revisions to its production guidance after a disappointing performance from its TEN and Jubilee fields offshore Ghana.
OPEC, non-OPEC Allies To Extend, Increase Production Cuts
The group will shed an additional 500,000 B/D of oil production through March 2020, bringing the total curtailment to 1.7 million B/D.
US Was Net Exporter of Crude, Petroleum Products in September
It is the first time the country was a net exporter of crude and petroleum products during a month since the US Energy Information Administration began keeping such records in 1973.
PRMS Classifications: Updated Methodology for Resource Inventory Management
This paper presents a methodology that provides the upstream industry with a robust approach to petroleum inventory management.
ConocoPhillips Unveils 10-Year Operating, Financial Plan
The plan targets some $50 billion in free cash flow over the period while growing production more than 3%/year.
Short-Term Headwinds and Fundamental Long-Term Change Will Challenge Oil and Gas Industry in 2020
Macroeconomic and business risks, investor uncertainty, and the energy transition highlight the challenges outlined in the report.
IEA Outlook Highlights Deep Disparities in Global Energy System
Annual report says that governments have the greatest capacity and responsibility to shape the energy future.
Chesapeake CEO Expresses Confidence in Company’s Financial Stability
The long-struggling shale operator’s share price on 12 November closed at 67¢/share, a 25-year low.
Report Forecasts “Major Slowdown” in US Oil Output Growth
Lower oil prices, increased operator focus on capital discipline, and diminishing access to capital are choking off once-soaring US oil production growth.
OPEC Expects To Shrink Supplies Until US Shale Peaks
The 2019 World Oil Outlook projects tight-oil supplies to rise to at least 75% of total US production before retreating.
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